Sunday, October 14, 2012

EGoM recos on telcos: See Rs 10/share impact on Bharti

EGoM recos on telcos: See Rs 10/share impact on Bharti
The chances are that the telecom companies will have to pay that one time fee for the excess spectrum they hold. The total industry number is available in the public space at Rs 27,000 crore. CNBC-TV18's Reema Tendulkar reports.

First, consensus is that the impact for Bharti Airtel  by way of a one time payment would be about Rs 3,800 crore to about Rs 4,000 crore. That means per share impact of close to about Rs 10.

For Idea , people have calculated the impact of close to about Rs 1500-Rs 1800, upto Rs 2,000. That turns out to be a per share impact of close to Rs 5-6. That is the impact, which the street has calculated, for the two of the individual players.

Most of these balance sheets of telecom companies are highly levered. Citi has made a point saying that the impact on the leverage after this kind of a payout that they will have to do will not be too much. So, for Bharti Airtel, for instance, they expect FY13 expected net debt to EBITDA to increase to 2.7 versus an earlier 2.6 and for Idea they estimate to go up to 2.7 from an earlier 2.4. That is the financial impact that the street has estimated on the back of yesterday's news.

Apart from that, there are a couple of things that you need to keep your eye on. One, the cabinet is expected to ratify as it is on October 16. You have to watch out whether the operators will go ahead and legally challenge this. The street is a little divided on whether they will want to do so.

More importantly, maybe one of the reasons why yesterday the stocks reacted slightly higher is because it removes that regulatory uncertainty. Today, the stocks have corrected after yesterdays big up move because the news which came through was largely on expected lines. But per se the impact is Rs 10 on Bharti and about Rs 5-Rs 6 on Idea.

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