WikiLeaks cable on Rahul Gandhi

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PINR PARM ENRG IN 
SUBJECT: THE SON ALSO RISES: RAHUL GANDHI TAKES ANOTHER 
STEP TOWARDS TOP JOB 

REF: A. NEW DELHI 4638 
B. NEW DELHI 4589 
C. CHENNAI 605 
D. MUMBAI 578 

Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D) 

1. (C) Summary: Congress Party supremo Sonia Gandhi 
appointed son Rahul Gandhi to a senior position in the 
Congress Party on September 24, a move that gives Rahul a 
formal role in the party organization and is seen as ensuring 
a clear line of dynastic succession. The appointment came as 
part of a larger reorganization and reshuffle of the party in 
Delhi and in some key states, signaling that the party has 
begun to revamp for elections, whether they are held early or 
on schedule in 2009. As part of the reorganization, Sonia 
Gandhi promoted some young Members of Parliament (many close 
to Rahul) to key party positions in an attempt to re-brand 
the party as youthful and energetic. She later hinted to the 
press that a cabinet reshuffle may bring some young MPs into 
government soon to mirror their promotion in the party 
organization. The immediate impact of the Rahul appointment 
may be to bring new blood to the small coterie of advisors 
who surround Sonia Gandhi. As party General Secretary in 
charge of youth affairs, Rahul now occupies the same position 
his father did en route to becoming the Prime Minister. The 
political landscape that Rahul steps into, however, is much 
more difficult than what his father encountered in the 1980s. 
  The Congress Party is no longer the dominant political force it then was.  Its power base amongst its traditional 
Dalit-Muslim-Brahmin coalition has eroded considerably. 
The best it can hope for in the foreseeable future is heading 
coalition governments with unpredictable partners. Also, 
Rahul is widely viewed as an empty suit and will have to 
prove wrong those who dismiss him as a light weight. To do 
so he will have to demonstrate determination, depth, savvy 
and stamina. He will need to get his hands dirty in the 
untidy and ruthless business that is Indian politics. End 
Summary. 

Here Comes the Son
------------------ 

2. (SBU) In a September 24 announcement that grabbed media 
headlines, the Congress Party appointed Rahul Gandhi its 
General Secretary for affairs relating to the Youth Congress 
and the National Students Union of India, the students 'wing 
of the Congress party. As one of a handful of AICC General 
Secretaries of the All India Congress Committee, he will 

SIPDIS 
automatically become one of about 20 members of the Congress 
Working Committee (CWC), the highest decision-making body of 
the party.   Gandhi's elevation to the inner-sanctum of the 
party comes after nearly two years of pleading by many 
Congress Party workers and family loyalists.   Rahul himself 
had publicly deferred a role within the party, citing his 
desire to learn more before taking a leadership position. 

Rites of Passage 
---------------- 

3. (SBU) Rahul Gandhi's promotion is being portrayed as a 
family rite of passage in the media. Father Rajiv Gandhi was 
appointed to the same position en route to becoming Prime 
Minister. Grandmother Indira Gandhi and great-grandfather 
Jawaharlal Nehru held important party positions as well 
before they became Prime Ministers. 

Grooming the Heir 
----------------- 

4. (SBU) A day later, in a well-choreographed event designed 
to demonstrate his effectiveness as a political leader, Rahul 
Gandhi led a delegation of AICC officials to meet the Prime 
Minister to request expansion of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, the UPA government's signature 
program to pass on the benefits of India's economic growth to 
the rural poor. Gandhi demanded that the program be extended 
to entire country from the 300 districts which it now covers. 
  The Prime Minister pledged to give the issue serious 
consideration, although some observers say it is a done deal and will be announced soon. 

5. (U) Gandhi next made his debut on the international stage 
when he flew a few days later with his mother to New York 
where world leaders had gathered for UNGA meetings. Sonia 
and Rahul participated in international tributes to Mahatma 
Gandhi and the UN designation of Mahatma Gandhi's birthday as the International Day of Non-violence. 
They were feted by the Indian community in New York. 

Party Reorganization: Prelude to a Poll? --------------------------------------- 

6. (SBU) The Gandhi appointment came as part of a larger 
reshuffle in the party secretariat and reorganization of 
party units in some key states. This fueled speculation that 
the country was headed towards snap mid-term elections. Talk 
of early elections subsided quickly, however, when on October 12 Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress Party president 
Sonia Gandhi publicly softened their stand in their face-off with the Left parties on the US-India civil nuclear agreement 
(Refs A, B). Sonia Gandhi's unequivocal assertion that the 
Congress Party would work to ensure the UPA government 
completes its five year term has decreased the prospects of a 
mid-term election. Nonetheless, the party reorganization 
suggests that the Congress Party is revamping itself for 
elections, whether they are held early or on schedule in 
2009. 

7. (U) Sonia Gandhi appointed five new faces to the CWC 
while dropping eleven members or "invitees" in the party 
reorganization. In addition to reconstituting the party's 
media committee and manifesto committee, she appointed four 
new AICC General Secretaries (including Rahul) and 10 new AICC Secretaries. She also announced changes in party 
leadership in four states -- Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttarkhand, 
Uttar Pradesh -- where the party has suffered serious 
setbacks in the last state elections. 

A Changing of the Guard? 
------------------------ 

8. (SBU) The Congress Party highlighted the increased 
responsibilities given in the reorganization to a cadre 
of young and energetic MPs. In addition to Rahul Gandhi, at 
least five -- Jyotiraditya Scindia, Sandeep Dikshit, Sachin 
Pilot, Priya Dutt and Jitin Prasad -- were installed at 
various levels in the party hierarchy. Minister of State for Commerce Jairam Ramesh was appointed to head a group to look 
into "Future Challenges." This attention to younger MPs and 
emphasis on the "future" suggests that the Congress Party is 
trying to position itself as the party for the young and the 
next generation and contrast it with the aging leadership of 
the BJP and some of its regional rivals. With about 70 percent 
of India's population below 35, there is a huge 
potential payoff for any product that appeals to the young. 

Cabinet Reshuffle? 
----------------- 

9. (SBU) The Congress Party reorganization also led to a 
flurry of stories about the prospects of a cabinet reshuffle 
as the UPA government prepares for elections, whether in 2008 
or in 2009. In an interaction with the press on October 11, 
Sonia Gandhi hinted that young MPs may find a place in the 
cabinet to mirror their increased prominence. Any cabinet 
reshuffle that occurs would also likely address claims of two 
UPA allies. Former Coal Minister Shibu Soren of the small 
Jharkhan Mukti Morcha party wants his job back after a higher 
court overturned his conviction in a murder case. He had 
been forced to resign from the cabinet in 2006 when a lower 
court found him complicit in the 1994 murder of a member 
of his staff. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) party, as one 
of the larger UPA constituents, has been pressing for 
additional representation in the cabinet. 

Reaction -------- 

10. (SBU) Congress Party officials and workers reacted with 
enthusiasm and fanfare to the elevation of Rahul Gandhi and 
the infusion of the younger MPs into the organizational 
structure. Unfortunately for them, the buzz surrounding the 
appointment was short-lived. It was overshadowed immediately 
by euphoric nation-wide celebrations when India lifted the 
cricket Twenty-20 World Cup on September 24 by defeating arch-rivals Pakistan. The BJP dismissed the Gandhi 
appointment as predictable and a non-event. BJP leader 
Venkaiah Naidu said, "The Congress is known for its dynastic 
politics. It is their dynasty; the Congress has a right to 
appoint anyone it wants." 

11. (SBU) The press stayed with the Rahul Gandhi and "young 
blood" story for a few days, with most independent columnists 
and editorials in general agreement that the Rahul Gandhi 
appointment was inevitable, on balance positive for the 
party, but not a panacea for the challenges facing the 
Congress Party as it has serious organizational work to do in 
preparing for the next Parliamentary election. A veteran 
Hindustan Times journalist told Poloff that for the first 
time in two decades the Congress Party has a clearly 
designated successor in place, which adds policy stability 
and organizational steadiness to the party going forward. 
Noting that Rahul Gandhi is the only young Indian political figure with nation-wide appeal, the journalist felt that 
Gandhi could help enhance Congress Party prospects with those 
who see the "next generation" as India's hope. He felt that 
the most significant immediate impact of the Gandhi 
appointment will be to "sideline the old brigade." The 
coterie of advisors such as Ahmed Patel, Oscar Fernandes and 
Ambika Soni who surround Sonia Gandhi will see their power 
diminish as party officials and workers from around the 
country now have someone even closer to the center of power 
to go to for decisions, guidance and complaints. 

Comment: Son Rise 
----------------- 

12. (C) Rahul Gandhi's appointment to a senior party post is 
another step in the carefully calibrated grooming of Rahul 
Gandhi to eventually follow his father, grandmother and 
great-grandfather to higher office. Earlier this year, Rahul 
Gandhi led the party's campaign in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) 
elections. Although the party put in a dismal performance, 
Gandhi no doubt gained valuable experience from the rough and 
tumble of a UP campaign. His new AICC job will allow him to 
acquire organizational experience as well as build an 
independent constituency for himself among the younger cadres 
and future leaders of the party. 

13. (C) Much has been made about Rahul Gandhi taking a 
party post once occupied by his father en route to becoming the 
Prime Minister. The political landscape that Rahul steps 
into, however, is very different from what Rajiv Gandhi 
encountered in the eighties. The Congress Party then was by 
far the most dominant political force in the country. Except 
for a brief post-Emergency period, it had been in power 
continuously since independence. It had a clear majority in 
Parliament. It controlled most key state governments. 
Opposition parties, including the BJP-precursor Jan Sangh, 
were mere irritants to Congress Party rule. Rahul Gandhi 
enters the national stage in starkly different circumstances. 
  The Congress Party is a much weakened entity. The 
Dalit-Muslim-Brahmin coalition that kept it in power for so 
long has unraveled. The party no longer has a presence in 
Uttar Pradesh, once the seat of its power in Delhi. 
Regional parties have gained at the expense of the Congress Part as 
they have better harnessed regional aspirations. Coalition 
government is the rule rather than the exception in Delhi. 
More recently, the party has been weakened by its reversal on 
the US-India civil nuclear agreement (Ref A) as well as in some 
pockets by the Ram Sethu controversy (Ref C). The upcoming Gujarat elections (Ref D) will provide a key test of the Congress Party's 
strength and its willingness to risk early national elections. 

14. (C) Little is known about Rahul Gandhi's personal 
political beliefs, if any. He is reticent in public, has 
shunned the spotlight, and has yet to make any significant 
intervention in Parliament. His singular foray to center 
stage during the UP elections was unremarkable. He is widely 
viewed as an empty suit and will have to prove wrong those 
who dismiss him as a lightweight. To do so he will have to 
demonstrate determination, depth, savvy and stamina. He will 
need to develop his own networks of loyalists and operators. 
He will need to engage with coalition allies and cross words 
with the opposition. In sum, he will need to get his hands 
dirty in the untidy and ruthless business that is Indian 
politics. Relying solely on family inheritance may get him 
the top job but it will not be enough to make for a successful 
long-term political career in India. As for the younger MPs who 
have been promoted, they are smart, articulate and energetic. 
Their ascension makes for a good story-line. Their achievement 
and success during the last three years and half years, 
however, has been modest. In order to succeed in the next 
election the Congress Party will need to do more than simply 
don a younger face. 
MULFORD