Osama bin Laden 'struggled' to exercise minimal influence over affiliates

Osama bin Laden struggled to exercise even minimal operational influence over groups affiliated with al Qaeda, says an analysis of 17 letters to and from bin Laden and his associates captured from his Abbottabad compound by the Navy SEAL team that killed him.

All 17 letters--in the original Arabic and in English translations--have been declassified and placed online at the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point webpage. They appear to range in date from September 2006 through April 2011, although some lack dates.

Center academics also released their own analysis of the documents, cautioning that since they had no role in selecting the documents for declassification that their conclusions may have limited value in assessing the state of al Qaeda today.

However,  the letters do show affiliates such as al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula seeking bin Laden's blessing on symbolic maters, but not consulting on operational matters and not following his directives.

"The framing of an [al Qaeda core] as an organization in control of regional 'affiliates' reflects a conceptual construction by outsiders rather than the messy reality of insiders," analysis authors state.

Bin Laden wanted affiliates to focus on harming the United States and not carry out attacks that would result in the deaths of other Muslims. Those deaths, he worried, had resulted in the loss of sympathy with al Qaeda by the Muslim public

Although bin Laden "clearly sought to centralize global jihadi activities so that AQC could oversee the affairs of regional groups and, if needed, veto certain decisions," he was not, "as many thought, the puppet master pulling the strings that set in motion jihadi groups around the world."

The letters also show that al Qaeda's relations with Iran, far from being one of allies, was one of mutual distrust. The documents' discussions of Pakistan are scarce and inconclusive, authors say--but there are "no explicit references to any institutional Pakistani support for al-Qaeda or its operatives."

An April 2011 document authored by bin Laden shows he considered the Arab Spring to be a "formidable event" and was dismissive of the Muslim Brotherhood since they pursued their aims through the electoral process.

For more:
- go to the  Combating Terrorism Center at West Point webpage with the declassified documents
- download the center academics' analysis of the documents (.pdf)